Thu, Feb 17, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 015 | 119 | 146 |
| TOR | 115 | 26 | 18 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21TORAuston MatthewsAssists: TJ Brodie, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:31TORMorgan RiellyPPGWGAssists: Jack Campbell · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 18:36TORDavid KampfSHAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 3:33PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 6:06TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:04PITEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
- P1 16:04TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 5:02PITEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:03TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P2 9:54TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:19TORAlexander Kerfoot: Holding2 min
- P3 9:08TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Malkin – Heinen10:37
xG 1.25–0.22 (85%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:06
xG 0.74–0.57 (57%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Simon – Aston-Reese8:51
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- McGinn – Kapanen – Rodrigues10:06
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:17
xG 1.29–0.75 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Matheson – Ruhwedel16:06
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino12:01
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKase – Kampf – Mikheyev8:20
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews11:20
xG 0.49–0.75 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:59
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall5:58
xG 0.07–0.41 (14%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Dermott11:44
xG 0.89–0.79 (53%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:46
xG 0.49–0.69 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Sandin12:23
xG 0.36–1.09 (25%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).