Wed, Dec 29, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 38 | 06 | 320 |
| WSH | 311 | 011 | 215 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15WSHLars EllerAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:11WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:52WSHNic DowdAssists: Carl Hagelin, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 1:23NSHYakov TreninAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P2 7:03NSHLuke KuninAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Ben Harpur · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 7:38NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Dante Fabbro, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 14:24WSHEvgeny KuznetsovSHGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 18:57WSHCarl HagelinENAssists: Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (19)
- P1 7:44NSHMichael McCarron: Interference2 min
- P1 16:03NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:21NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:21WSHGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:21WSHAlexander Alexeyev: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:27NSHMark Borowiecki: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:27NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:27NSHMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:27WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:00NSHBen Harpur: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:00WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:35NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:15NSHDante Fabbro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:24WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:18NSHMikael Granlund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:44WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:31WSHMichal Kempny: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:31NSHMichael McCarron: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:31WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Trenin – Jeannot7:57
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tolvanen6:53
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Cousins – Olivier – Tomasino6:16
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:55
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Fabbro11:21
xG 0.59–0.36 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Fabbro2:59
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Borowiecki – Benning7:08
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:16
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Backstrom – Sheary – Protas5:38
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – McMichael8:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:45
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Alexeyev8:42
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov12:23
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 15–9goals 2–2
- van Riemsdyk – Kempny14:00
xG 0.43–0.65 (40%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).