Sat, Jan 1, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 09 | 010 | 023 |
| TOR | 211 | 115 | 314 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:06TORJustin HollSHGWGAssists: David Kampf, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:33TORIlya MikheyevSHAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 7:18TORTJ BrodieAssists: Morgan Rielly, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 13:41TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Travis Dermott, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 14:42TORIlya MikheyevPPAssists: Ondrej Kase, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P3 17:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Rasmus Sandin · Slap, 0.09 xG0–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:47OTTZachary Sanford: Holding2 min
- P1 4:23OTTAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:37TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:47OTTNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:05OTTZachary Sanford: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:56OTTZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:30TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:43OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:23TORJustin Holl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Formenton – Stützle5:43
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
- Tierney – Batherson – Tkachuk7:15
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Formenton3:33
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell3:43
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Thomson10:18
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Chabot – Mete12:47
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Chabot – Thomson2:03
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:16
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews10:30
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall6:02
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Engvall – Kampf2:24
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Sandin13:14
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:35
xG 0.93–0.73 (56%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Biega – Dermott12:23
xG 0.32–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).