Sun, Jan 2, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Winnipeg Jets 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 211 | 212 | 14 | 537 |
| VGK | 222 | 014 | 29 | 01 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:05VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:59VGKEvgenii DadonovAssists: Michael Amadio, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:19WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 2:39WPGKristian ReichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 2:28WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:16WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
- P3 13:37VGKMattias JanmarkAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:51VGKMattias JanmarkAssists: Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 2:39WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:32WPGJansen Harkins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:42VGKChandler Stephenson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:30VGKBrett Howden: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Scheifele – Ehlers12:15
xG 1.31–0.86 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Reichel7:08
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen2:25
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Connor – Harkins – Dubois11:07
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Stanley12:16
xG 0.84–0.53 (62%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:39
xG 0.77–0.77 (50%)attempts 12–19goals 1–2
- Dillon – Pionk15:31
xG 0.89–0.92 (49%)attempts 14–23goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Kolesar – Roy11:18
xG 0.95–0.46 (68%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:04
xG 0.95–0.91 (51%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stephenson – Patrick4:58
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Carrier – Amadio – Howden2:02
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Whitecloud12:44
xG 1.62–0.42 (79%)attempts 27–8goals 2–1
- Theodore – Coghlan3:35
xG 0.51–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud2:06
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).