Tue, Feb 22, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 219 | 113 | 343 |
| OTT | 213 | 18 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Artem Zub, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:05OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 6:31MINKevin FialaAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:40MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:22OTTTim StützleAssists: Joshua Brown, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 4:32MINJon MerrillUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 14:15OTTThomas ChabotGWGAssists: Adam Gaudette, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:18OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:23OTTBrady Tkachuk: Elbowing2 min
- P1 16:01MINFrederick Gaudreau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:23OTTTim Stützle: Interference2 min
- P2 9:23MINDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:39MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:36MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Dewar – Sturm4:23
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime7:13
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:39
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Foligno – Hartman – Kaprizov9:10
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon12:24
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison9:52
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Kulikov – Brodin15:35
xG 0.35–0.96 (27%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Tierney – Formenton6:32
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Paul – Sanford9:28
xG 0.21–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly8:46
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Tkachuk – Stützle7:19
xG 0.09–0.67 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev14:59
xG 1.05–0.60 (64%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zub16:02
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
- Brown – Brannstrom9:01
xG 0.24–0.75 (25%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).