Wed, Jan 5, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 29 | 08 | 013 | 230 |
| TOR | 215 | 07 | 211 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 9:58EDMBrendan PerliniAssists: Colton Sceviour, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 11:12EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 19:32TORTJ BrodieAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 11:25TORIlya MikheyevPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:45TORAlexander KerfootENUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:39TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:52EDMSlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P3 10:12EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Shore – Benson8:08
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Turris – Sceviour – Perlini7:02
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – Puljujarvi – McLeod10:47
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – Yamamoto15:39
xG 0.48–1.07 (31%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Lagesson11:11
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Ceci17:51
xG 0.80–1.17 (41%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Nurse – Bouchard18:05
xG 0.29–0.78 (28%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander13:32
xG 1.15–0.29 (80%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews13:52
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev10:53
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Ritchie4:51
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl18:57
xG 0.93–0.53 (64%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Dermott – Sandin12:47
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Brodie – Rielly18:13
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).