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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 8, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale

Nashville Predators 4, Arizona Coyotes 2

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Home

Arizona Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.

ARI winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH3190515429
ARI012015213240

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:56NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Luke Kunin, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:20NSHYakov TreninAssists: Matt Benning, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:56NSHTanner JeannotGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P3 2:19ARIClayton KellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P3 7:25NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
  6. P3 10:48ARILawson CrouseAssists: Riley Nash, Cam Dineen · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (25)
  1. P1 0:58ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:58NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:37ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 2:37NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 6:28NSHMatt Luff: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 6:28ARIDysin Mayo: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 11:05NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
  8. P1 12:45NSHLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
  9. P1 15:26NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
  10. P1 16:00ARIJohan Larsson: Interference2 min
  11. P1 19:09ARIAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
  12. P1 19:22NSHMikael Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
  13. P2 0:56NSHTanner Jeannot: High sticking2 min
  14. P2 13:48ARIJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
  15. P3 2:44ARIAndrew Ladd: Instigator2 min
  16. P3 2:44NSHYakov Trenin: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 2:44ARIClayton Keller: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 2:44NSHYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 2:44ARIAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min · PPG
  20. P3 2:44ARIAndrew Ladd: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 6:10ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 10:48NSHTanner Jeannot: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 10:48ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
  24. P3 10:48NSHNick Cousins: Delaying game bench2 min
  25. P3 12:20ARIChristian Fischer: Delaying game face off violation2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ARI
48% to win52% to win
← NSH attackARI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Granlund
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHARI
29Shots on goal40
3.0Expected goals4.3
47Shot attempts67
34Faceoffs won36
6Power plays6
38Penalty minutes48
48Hits34
13Blocked shots9
7Giveaways6
5Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestJohansen – Kunin – Tolvanen5:46

    xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0

  2. Cousins – Sissons – Trenin4:08

    xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. McCarron – Luff – Tomasino4:38

    xG 0.06–0.29 (16%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1

  4. Duchene – Granlund – Jeannot6:09

    xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. Josi – Myers3:20

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  2. Josi – Benning10:18

    xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2

  3. Borowiecki – Myers5:56

    xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestKessel – Larsson – Crouse5:57

    xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  2. Nash – Roussel – Fischer4:43

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Galchenyuk – O'Brien – Schmaltz3:58

    xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  4. Ladd – Boyd – Keller4:05

    xG 0.14–0.32 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGostisbehere – Moser2:09

    xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  2. Stralman – Moser9:04

    xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0

  3. Dineen – Lyubushkin7:46

    xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ARI 4.3 xGNSH 3.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ARINSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #814 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50ARI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.

ARI winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).