Fri, Jan 21, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 210 | 17 | 15 | 532 |
| DET | 111 | 29 | 17 | 01 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03DALRyan SuterAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:26DETRobby FabbriAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:50DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 7:34DETPius SuterAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:16DETDylan LarkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:47DALEsa LindellAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 13:46DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 18:57DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 2:51DALRoope HintzPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:19DALDenis Gurianov: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08DALRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:00DETJoseph Veleno: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:05DETGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 4:22DETAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:51DALAlexander Radulov: Holding2 min
- P3 12:58DALBraden Holtby: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 2:09DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:38
xG 0.78–0.22 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov6:42
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
- Radulov – Faksa – Kiviranta5:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen13:14
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell10:44
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Hanley3:36
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter9:50
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond9:36
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno3:52
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen2:25
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek12:40
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Seider10:38
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Leddy – Lindstrom13:55
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).