Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 115 | 513 | 737 |
| DET | 115 | 313 | 07 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15DETDylan LarkinAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:28TORPierre EngvallAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jason Spezza · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:16DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 2:11DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Robby Fabbri, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:07TORMichael BuntingAssists: Justin Holl, David Kampf · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 15:54DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 9:28TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 11:58TORMichael BuntingAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 17:09TORRasmus SandinGWGAssists: John Tavares, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.12 xG5–4
- P3 18:46TORMitch MarnerENAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.77 xG6–4
- P3 19:49TORJohn TavaresENAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.65 xG7–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:34DETAdam Erne: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:44TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00DETVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TORTravis Dermott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:09DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews6:50
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall8:15
xG 0.60–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander6:20
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Kampf5:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Sandin19:23
xG 1.28–0.95 (57%)attempts 16–21goals 3–0
- Dermott – Liljegren12:49
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly18:52
xG 1.00–1.24 (44%)attempts 24–16goals 1–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter10:09
xG 1.02–0.60 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Larkin – Raymond13:02
xG 0.81–0.90 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno5:33
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina10:27
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Hronek14:17
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Leddy – Hronek2:15
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Seider16:21
xG 1.31–1.27 (51%)attempts 16–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).