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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Detroit Red Wings 4

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:06Shot by Kase, saved by Nedeljkovic
  3. P1 1:15Goal by Larkin (Namestnikov)+22 pts WP

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, Oesterle, Larkin, Seider, Raymond · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Bunting, Kase, Matthews

  4. P1 1:24Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  5. P1 1:57Shot by Marner, saved by Nedeljkovic
  6. P1 3:33Shot by Oesterle, saved by Mrazek
  7. P1 4:33Shot by Fabbri, saved by Mrazek
  8. P1 4:49Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  9. P1 4:55Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  10. P1 5:10Shot by Fabbri, saved by Mrazek
  11. P1 7:12Shot by Kase, saved by Nedeljkovic
  12. P1 8:13Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  13. P1 8:43Shot by Engvall, saved by Nedeljkovic
  14. P1 9:58Shot by Erne, saved by Mrazek
  15. P1 10:22Shot by Erne, saved by Mrazek
  16. P1 12:51Shot by Engvall, saved by Nedeljkovic
  17. P1 14:23Shot by Raymond, saved by Mrazek
  18. P1 15:06Shot by Fabbri, saved by Mrazek
  19. P1 15:09Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  20. P1 15:10Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  21. P1 15:13Shot by Staal, saved by Mrazek
  22. P1 16:28Goal by Engvall (Rielly, Spezza)+22 pts WP

    On ice: DET Leddy, Erne, Rasmussen, Lindstrom, Zadina · TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Engvall

  23. P1 19:04Shot by Matthews, saved by Nedeljkovic
  24. P1 19:44Shot by Matthews, saved by Nedeljkovic
  25. P1 19:49Shot by Simmonds, saved by Nedeljkovic
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:44Shot by Sandin, saved by Nedeljkovic
  29. P2 0:51Shot by Matthews, saved by Nedeljkovic
  30. P2 1:14Shot by Larkin, saved by Mrazek
  31. P2 1:16Goal by Namestnikov (Larkin, Seider)+22 pts WP

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, Oesterle, Larkin, Seider, Raymond · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Bunting, Kase, Matthews

  32. P2 1:36Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Nedeljkovic
  33. P2 2:11Goal by Bertuzzi (Fabbri, Seider)+13 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, Veleno, Seider · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Marner, Mikheyev

  34. P2 2:39Shot by Engvall, saved by Nedeljkovic
  35. P2 2:56Shot by Bunting, saved by Nedeljkovic
  36. P2 3:15Shot by Oesterle, saved by Mrazek
  37. P2 4:12Shot by Raymond, saved by Mrazek
  38. P2 7:15Shot by Liljegren, saved by Nedeljkovic
  39. P2 8:54Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Mrazek
  40. P2 9:34Erne: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: DET Staal, Erne, Hronek, Rasmussen, Zadina · TOR Kerfoot, Nylander, Dermott, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  41. P2 11:10Shot by Staal, saved by Mrazek4v5
  42. P2 12:01Shot by Bunting, saved by Nedeljkovic
  43. P2 12:07Goal by Bunting (Holl, Kampf)+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Leddy, Bertuzzi, Larkin, Seider, Raymond · TOR Brodie, Holl, Bunting, Kampf, Mikheyev

  44. P2 12:42Shot by Rielly, saved by Nedeljkovic
  45. P2 12:55Shot by Rielly, saved by Nedeljkovic
  46. P2 13:07Shot by Marner, saved by Nedeljkovic
  47. P2 14:44Tavares: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: DET Leddy, Erne, Rasmussen, Zadina, Seider · TOR Tavares, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander, Sandin

  48. P2 15:13Shot by Marner, saved by Nedeljkovic5v4
  49. P2 15:54Goal by Larkin (Fabbri, Raymond)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, Seider, Raymond · TOR Rielly, Kerfoot, Liljegren, Mikheyev

  50. P2 17:24Shot by Suter, saved by Mrazek
  51. P2 17:48Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  52. P2 17:56Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  53. P2 18:03Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  54. P2 18:19Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Mrazek
  55. P2 18:21Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Mrazek
  56. P2 18:42Shot by Larkin, saved by Mrazek
  57. P2 19:19Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Mrazek
  58. P2 0:00Namestnikov: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, Oesterle, Larkin, Veleno, Seider · TOR Bunting, Dermott, Matthews, Liljegren, Mikheyev

  59. P2 0:00Dermott: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, Oesterle, Larkin, Veleno, Seider · TOR Bunting, Dermott, Matthews, Liljegren, Mikheyev

  60. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 0:50Shot by Larkin, saved by Mrazek4v4
  63. P3 1:03Shot by Oesterle, saved by Mrazek4v4
  64. P3 1:36Shot by Holl, saved by Nedeljkovic4v4
  65. P3 2:13Shot by Marner, saved by Nedeljkovic
  66. P3 4:29Shot by Brodie, saved by Nedeljkovic
  67. P3 5:14Shot by Bunting, saved by Nedeljkovic
  68. P3 8:05Shot by Zadina, saved by Mrazek
  69. P3 9:23Shot by Bunting, saved by Nedeljkovic
  70. P3 9:28Goal by Bunting (Matthews, Holl)+13 pts WP

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, Oesterle, Larkin, Seider, Raymond · TOR Holl, Bunting, Marner, Matthews, Sandin

  71. P3 11:58Goal by Bunting (Marner, Matthews)+31 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Erne, Hronek, Rasmussen, Zadina · TOR Holl, Bunting, Marner, Matthews, Sandin

  72. P3 12:14Shot by Raymond, saved by Mrazek
  73. P3 13:00Shot by Seider, saved by Mrazek
  74. P3 14:15Shot by Engvall, saved by Nedeljkovic
  75. P3 16:22Shot by Spezza, saved by Nedeljkovic
  76. P3 16:40Shot by Tavares, saved by Nedeljkovic
  77. P3 17:09Goal by Sandin (Tavares, Kerfoot)+45 pts WP

    On ice: DET Leddy, Erne, Lindstrom, Veleno, Zadina · TOR Tavares, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander, Sandin

  78. P3 18:09Fabbri: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, Hronek, Seider, Raymond · TOR Brodie, Holl, Kase, Kampf, Mikheyev

  79. P3 18:46Goal by Marner (Kerfoot, Rielly)+3 pts WP

    On ice: DET Gagner, Leddy, Larkin, Suter, Seider · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews

  80. P3 19:25Shot by Raymond, saved by Mrazek
  81. P3 19:29Shot by Hronek, saved by Mrazek
  82. P3 19:49Goal by Tavares (Kampf)6v50 pts WP

    On ice: DET Leddy, Bertuzzi, Larkin, Fabbri, Hronek, Raymond · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Kase, Kampf

  83. P3 0:00Period end
  84. P3 0:00Final