Thu, Feb 24, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 111 | 013 | 130 |
| TOR | 05 | 110 | 210 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:37MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Matt Boldy, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 9:04TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 10:22TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 19:18TORAlexander KerfootENAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:52MINDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:24TORIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P2 3:12TORDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:08MINKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:44TORRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min
- P3 1:07TORMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy9:20
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:56
xG 0.18–0.25 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Dewar – Sturm6:21
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Bjugstad – Eriksson Ek9:32
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Brodin16:55
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Merrill – Addison8:28
xG 0.02–0.12 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon14:49
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Tavares – Nylander2:17
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews14:08
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Kase6:04
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall3:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Liljegren10:59
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Sandin – Lyubushkin11:44
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:21
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).