Sat, Feb 26, 2022·Nissan Stadium, NashvilleOutdoor game
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 213 | 18 | 333 |
| NSH | 111 | 05 | 112 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20NSHTanner JeannotPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 0:58TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:18TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 11:31TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Cal Foote, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 12:29NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:19NSHRyan Johansen: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 6:34TBLMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:55NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:55TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:49NSHMatt Benning: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:06TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:06NSHRyan Johansen: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 5:15NSHTanner Jeannot: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:05TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:35NSHPhilippe Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:57TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min
- P3 12:22TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare7:47
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli9:39
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point11:48
xG 0.34–0.19 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Joseph – Raddysh – Colton6:21
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Rutta3:01
xG 0.59–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev8:01
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote2:54
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:33
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:48
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Luff – Tolvanen5:36
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Johansen – Kunin – Tomasino8:27
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:47
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Harpur – Myers8:50
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).