Sun, Feb 27, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 011 | 317 | 538 |
| ARI | 29 | 16 | 014 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:39WPGAdam LowryAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Nate Schmidt · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:16ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Vladislav Kolyachonok, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 10:59WPGEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 16:40ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Nick Ritchie, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 13:56ARINick RitchieAssists: Loui Eriksson, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 3:17WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 5:34WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 18:52WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 16:50WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:50ARIJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:37ARIVladislav Kolyachonok: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois13:14
xG 1.74–0.71 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Lowry – Toninato – Vesalainen2:15
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Toninato – Brooks – Vesalainen5:10
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele16:41
xG 0.88–1.23 (42%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:49
xG 1.36–0.39 (78%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk18:06
xG 1.98–1.45 (58%)attempts 24–21goals 2–2
- Beaulieu – Schmidt13:46
xG 0.65–1.04 (39%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Ritchie – Hayton9:39
xG 1.04–0.40 (72%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Roussel – Fischer – Crouse6:50
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – Nash – Galchenyuk4:31
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Nash – Roussel – Fischer4:39
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chychrun – Kolyachonok11:45
xG 0.83–0.80 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Mayo17:34
xG 0.57–1.14 (33%)attempts 20–12goals 1–2
- Stralman – Moser15:28
xG 0.73–1.36 (35%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).