Thu, Mar 3, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 216 | 112 | 212 | 540 |
| TBL | 05 | 18 | 08 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46PITDanton HeinenAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 6:27PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:20TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 17:08PITBrock McGinnAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 5:14PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 14:00PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:27TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:54PITKris Letang: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:06TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06TBLPatrick Maroon: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 19:06TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06PITMark Friedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06TBLPatrick Maroon: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 4:37TBLAnthony Cirelli: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:37PITDominik Simon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:52PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – McGinn – Rodrigues12:27
xG 0.95–0.23 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – Heinen12:33
xG 0.84–0.18 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Boyle – Simon – Aston-Reese8:40
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:34
xG 0.80–1.49 (35%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino18:21
xG 1.30–0.30 (81%)attempts 26–13goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Friedman11:48
xG 0.73–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:06
xG 0.93–1.54 (38%)attempts 23–17goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare8:19
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Joseph – Raddysh – Colton3:17
xG 0.47–0.14 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Raddysh – Colton5:09
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov2:22
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev2:29
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:32
xG 1.05–1.00 (51%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Hedman – Rutta10:54
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).