Fri, Mar 4, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 434 |
| WPG | 016 | 18 | 216 | 02 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23DALJason RobertsonAssists: Ryan Suter, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 13:38WPGPaul StastnyPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 19:09DALJason RobertsonAssists: Thomas Harley · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 1:21WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 12:19WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 15:28DALDenis GurianovAssists: Jamie Benn, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 4:30DALJason RobertsonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:08DALJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:37DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:04DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:25WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:51WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:00WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P2 5:26DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 6:08DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:39DALRiley Tufte: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:18WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:18DALMichael Raffl: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Gurianov – Tufte6:27
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl7:36
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta5:43
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:36
xG 0.27–1.22 (18%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hakanpää13:13
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Suter – Klingberg2:45
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Hanley3:25
xG 0.02–0.03 (47%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Svechnikov – Dubois13:00
xG 1.18–0.24 (83%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Lowry – Copp – Ehlers8:55
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Toninato – Harkins – Vesalainen3:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Scheifele9:40
xG 0.45–0.61 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey7:38
xG 1.04–0.10 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Pionk4:48
xG 0.47–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo5:18
xG 0.18–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).