Thu, Mar 10, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 015 | 19 | 131 |
| BUF | 111 | 03 | 210 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 12:01VGKBen HuttonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–1
- P3 16:16BUFVictor OlofssonPPGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:24BUFAlex TuchENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:46VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:50BUFPeyton Krebs: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:28BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:24BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:35BUFJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:35VGKBen Hutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40VGKMichael Amadio: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:40BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:39BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:57VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:33VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Marchessault – Eichel10:38
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg5:04
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Karlsson – Amadio7:38
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Carrier – Roy7:14
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud2:09
xG 0.33–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hutton – Coghlan6:40
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud13:16
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Olofsson – Mittelstadt7:02
xG 0.53–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens4:12
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Eakin – Hayden – Asplund2:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs2:12
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Dahlin6:44
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Bryson – Samuelsson6:45
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hagg – Fitzgerald3:26
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).