Thu, Mar 10, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 27 | 29 | 05 | 12 | 523 |
| TOR | 08 | 111 | 318 | 01 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Riley Nash, Dysin Mayo · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 4:21ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Phil Kessel, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:08ARITravis BoydAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 4:55TORPierre EngvallAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 11:57ARIChristian FischerAssists: Lawson Crouse, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 3:38TORAlexander KerfootAssists: TJ Brodie, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 8:07TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–3
- P3 8:17TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 2:17ARIJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli · Slap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (1)
- P1 4:21TORJohn Tavares: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Fischer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Fischer – Crouse – Maccelli9:23
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Crouse – Hayton – Maccelli2:11
xG 0.23–0.43 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton8:02
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
- Kessel – Nash – Galchenyuk10:10
xG 0.33–0.65 (34%)attempts 5–20goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Mayo2:09
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Kolyachonok13:43
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun2:39
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews18:19
xG 1.30–0.18 (88%)attempts 26–8goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander6:09
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev11:55
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kase – Robertson5:59
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren15:41
xG 1.96–0.41 (83%)attempts 26–11goals 2–1
- Brodie – Holl16:52
xG 1.25–0.07 (95%)attempts 26–7goals 1–1
- Rielly – Lyubushkin2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).