Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 113 | 16 | 227 |
| TBL | 116 | 05 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:41TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 9:25NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Dryden Hunt, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 19:44NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:50TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:40NYRPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:07TBLRoss Colton: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:56NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:48NYRBraden Schneider: Interference2 min
- P2 9:25TBLCorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:17NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:17TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:17TBLPatrick Maroon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:01TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:02NYRRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:02TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:45TBLErik Cernak: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Panarin12:00
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Hunt – Chytil9:44
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Brodzinski5:41
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière9:59
xG 0.06–0.46 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:02
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Schneider12:07
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller12:26
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare5:40
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli9:55
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Joseph – Colton – Hagel4:57
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Kucherov13:29
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev11:15
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian10:11
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta11:36
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).