Sat, Mar 19, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 113 | 219 | 341 |
| NSH | 116 | 28 | 310 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:46NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Colton Sissons, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:48NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Jeremy Davies, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 8:04TORMitch MarnerAssists: Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 10:52NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Eeli Tolvanen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 3:41TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 12:11NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 14:09NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 15:19TORMitch MarnerAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 19:08NSHYakov TreninENAssists: Colton Sissons, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:54NSHMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:28TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P2 2:47TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:36NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:38NSHRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:20TORErik Kallgren: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:25TORKyle Clifford: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews10:31
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Spezza – Clifford – Kerfoot4:56
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Kase3:18
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev7:02
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin9:56
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Dermott – Sandin9:55
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Brodie – Rielly2:25
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Kunin – Tolvanen7:13
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Cousins – McCarron – Tomasino8:10
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:25
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg9:32
xG 0.15–0.40 (28%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Carrier16:26
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Josi – Fabbro12:40
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Tennyson – Davies9:07
xG 0.25–0.34 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).