Fri, Mar 25, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 213 | 09 | 07 | 2 | 440 |
| BUF | 14 | 29 | 05 | 05 | 1 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:49BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:06WSHNick JensenAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 10:23BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:55BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 16:47WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson scored
- 2. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 3. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:16WSHMichal Kempny: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:59BUFJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P2 16:59WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03BUFMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Wilson – Mantha12:39
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:46
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Eller – Sheary – Hathaway12:04
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Irwin7:04
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:42
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen16:47
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt11:18
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Hinostroza – Tuch – Krebs5:16
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson4:26
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 1–2
- Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens4:26
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Miller11:55
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson16:47
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:32
xG 0.22–0.80 (22%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).