Fri, Mar 25, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 010 | 14 | 14 | 218 |
| CGY | 06 | 315 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:33CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:35CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:14CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 19:48ARIMichael CarconeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 5:21CGYRasmus AnderssonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 18:07ARIVladislav KolyachonokAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Cam Dineen · Slap, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:15CGYNoah Hanifin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:59CGYTrevor Lewis: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 3:20ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:00CGYBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:36ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:48ARIKyle Capobianco: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:02ARIPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Carcone – Maccelli8:07
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Boyd – Crouse6:27
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Ritchie – Hayton7:17
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Galchenyuk – Schmaltz – Keller11:13
xG 0.10–0.80 (11%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Dineen11:40
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Stralman – Kolyachonok2:37
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo13:19
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Coleman – Mangiapane9:18
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:45
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie8:14
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Dube7:30
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:22
xG 0.92–0.27 (77%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov14:08
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Tanev – Kylington15:24
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).