Sun, Mar 27, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 4, New York Rangers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 210 | 12 | 00 | 417 |
| NYR | 27 | 111 | 110 | 13 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59NYRFrank VatranoAssists: Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:17NYRFrank VatranoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 18:12BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:06BUFWill ButcherAssists: Peyton Krebs, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 6:48BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 11:46NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Filip Chytil, Jonny Brodzinski · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 3:52NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Jacob Trouba, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.31 xG3–4
- P3 13:07BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 2:02NYRK'Andre MillerGWGAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (2)
- P2 13:03BUFPeyton Krebs: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:08NYRPatrik Nemeth: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Krebs – Cozens12:06
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt11:33
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons12:50
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:30
xG 0.30–1.05 (22%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Samuelsson2:21
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Dahlin2:52
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Copp – Panarin6:31
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano13:42
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière7:12
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Motte – Brodzinski – Hunt6:05
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller19:19
xG 1.40–0.20 (88%)attempts 17–8goals 3–1
- Nemeth – Schneider12:33
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren18:25
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).