Tue, Mar 29, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 014 | 010 | 137 |
| NSH | 110 | 111 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Josh Norris · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 19:21NSHMichael McCarronSHAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:14NSHMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 10:07NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Yakov Trenin, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:56NSHMatt DucheneENAssists: Filip Forsberg, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:58NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 3:42NSHLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:46NSHTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:48NSHEeli Tolvanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:57NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:50OTTDrake Batherson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:38OTTMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:52NSHRoman Josi: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:22NSHTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk8:34
xG 0.87–0.16 (85%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Tierney – White – Joseph8:12
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Watson – Gaudette – Gambrell3:45
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle7:10
xG 0.13–0.92 (12%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Hamonic12:41
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub12:12
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Holden – Zaitsev13:30
xG 0.36–0.78 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – McCarron – Tomasino8:31
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen8:04
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg8:39
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:50
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Lauzon12:49
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier2:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Josi – Carrier13:02
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).