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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 31, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Winnipeg Jets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7

Away

Winnipeg Jets

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 92% of the time.

TOR winsWPG wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WPG2815010323
TOR112413213738

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:19WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:45WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrap-around, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P1 15:03TORMark GiordanoAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 1:58TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–2
  5. P2 3:45WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P2 4:08TORJohn TavaresAssists: Carl Dahlstrom, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
  7. P2 8:40TORWilliam NylanderPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.37 xG3–4
  8. P2 13:55TORIlya MikheyevSHAssists: Pierre Engvall, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–5
  9. P3 17:54TORAuston MatthewsENAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–6
  10. P3 18:14TORTimothy LiljegrenPPAssists: William Nylander, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.10 xG3–7
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 9:37WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:45WPGVille Heinola: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 18:46TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 1:40WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 3:23TORJustin Holl: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
  6. P2 7:32WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 13:02TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 8:16WPGPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
  9. P3 14:12TORPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 14:12WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 18:08TORKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 18:08WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min · PPG
  13. P3 18:08WPGAdam Lowry: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 18:08WPGDominic Toninato: Charging2 min
  15. P3 18:08TORWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 18:14WPGMason Appleton: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WPG00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
48% to win52% to win
← WPG attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Dubois
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WPGTOR
23Shots on goal38
2.5Expected goals6.0
42Shot attempts65
30Faceoffs won36
3Power plays6
39Penalty minutes23
42Hits34
15Blocked shots8
8Giveaways13
6Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. bestStastny – Scheifele – Ehlers11:12

    xG 0.79–0.40 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1

  2. Toninato – Harkins – Barron4:45

    xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Wheeler – Sanford – Dubois12:57

    xG 0.34–0.54 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  4. Lowry – Svechnikov – Appleton6:42

    xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestDillon – Stanley8:57

    xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1

  2. DeMelo – Morrissey11:33

    xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0

  3. Morrissey – Heinola2:03

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestTavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev9:54

    xG 0.67–0.35 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0

  2. Spezza – Simmonds – Clifford4:57

    xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Nylander – Engvall – Kampf7:33

    xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1

  4. Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev2:26

    xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDahlstrom – Liljegren9:02

    xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0

  2. Giordano – Liljegren2:28

    xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0

  3. Brodie – Rielly14:15

    xG 0.63–0.68 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 6.0 xGWPG 2.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORWPG

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #246 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
WPG 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 92% of the time.

TOR winsWPG wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).