Mon, Apr 4, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 314 | 211 | 639 |
| TBL | 112 | 111 | 011 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59TORPierre EngvallAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:24TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:46TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 5:46TBLJan RuttaAssists: Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 9:57TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 12:25TORAlexander KerfootAssists: TJ Brodie, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 7:08TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 11:24TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.21 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:55TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:55TORWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:03TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 19:12TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:44TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews14:43
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 4–1
- Engvall – Kampf – Abruzzese10:12
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Clifford – Blackwell7:50
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Mikheyev10:47
xG 0.57–0.96 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl17:23
xG 1.05–0.63 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Giordano – Liljegren12:56
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin17:46
xG 1.10–1.48 (43%)attempts 18–29goals 2–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Colton – Hagel10:55
xG 0.98–0.23 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli4:49
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point7:15
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 1–2
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare9:11
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Foote2:07
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta16:09
xG 0.96–0.92 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Cernak – Sergachev16:32
xG 0.76–0.76 (50%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).