Sat, Apr 16, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 27 | 14 | 010 | 321 |
| BUF | 09 | 418 | 02 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Bobby Brink, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 3:55PHIOwen TippettUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 3:17BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Peyton Krebs, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 8:27BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:06PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 15:36BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Casey Fitzgerald · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 17:58BUFTage ThompsonPPGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:18BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:20PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46BUFAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:46PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:41PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:07PHINoah Cates: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:00PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:00BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min
- P3 14:49BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Frost – Farabee – Brink8:23
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Thompson – MacEwen – Cates3:34
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Tippett2:40
xG 0.01–0.02 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Cates2:31
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov2:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Yandle – Attard8:07
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Connauton – Attard2:35
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Hinostroza – Bjork9:36
xG 0.80–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Asplund – Cozens7:35
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson9:45
xG 0.33–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Tuch – Mittelstadt – Krebs7:26
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power12:58
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson9:13
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin14:03
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).