Sat, Apr 16, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 25 | 29 | 04 | 418 |
| TBL | 211 | 211 | 315 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56WPGPaul StastnyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:05TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:46WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 18:21TBLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Jan Rutta, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 7:36WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 9:34WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Dominic Toninato · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 13:56TBLNick PaulAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P2 18:03TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 3:00TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 6:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 11:55TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Erik Cernak, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:19TBLZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:19WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:19WPGAdam Lowry: Interference2 min
- P2 7:36TBLCorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:20WPGZachary Sanford: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:15TBLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:15WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P3 1:41TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:41WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:47WPGJosh Morrissey: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Sanford – Appleton6:24
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Toninato – Harkins – Svechnikov6:27
xG 0.01–0.24 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Barron8:56
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–3
- Stastny – Ehlers – Connor14:18
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:32
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 9–14goals 3–3
- Schmidt – Pionk15:11
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Dillon – Stanley15:08
xG 0.13–1.08 (10%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel9:46
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Paul – Point12:42
xG 0.46–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 3–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Colton9:00
xG 0.29–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare9:31
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:17
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 4–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:23
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Rutta2:34
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).