Thu, Feb 17, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 18 | 28 | 328 |
| BUF | 110 | 010 | 04 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:37BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 16:04OTTZachary SanfordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 10:49OTTAustin WatsonGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Dylan Gambrell · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:43OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:57BUFJohn Hayden: Misconduct10 min
- P1 2:57OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57BUFJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57BUFJohn Hayden: Instigator2 min
- P1 5:49OTTErik Brannstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:49OTTDylan Gambrell: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:32OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:50OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:15BUFDylan Cozens: Holding2 min
- P2 6:50OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 16:42OTTTyler Ennis: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Tierney – Sanford7:18
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle7:49
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – Tkachuk11:38
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly4:36
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Mete11:49
xG 0.82–0.07 (92%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Holden – Zaitsev15:48
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Zub14:11
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Jankowski – Hayden – Bjork5:59
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Okposo – Eakin – Asplund8:23
xG 0.01–0.29 (2%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Cozens9:04
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:37
xG 0.15–0.79 (16%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson14:41
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Hagg – Fitzgerald2:14
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Hagg9:42
xG 0.00–0.53 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).