Sat, Apr 23, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 116 | 216 | 116 | 448 |
| OTT | 16 | 518 | 02 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33OTTMark KastelicAssists: Scott Sabourin, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 15:57MTLRem PitlickAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 0:44OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Nick Holden, Parker Kelly · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:43OTTParker KellyAssists: Austin Watson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 7:15OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 7:50OTTMark KastelicGWGAssists: Scott Sabourin · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 8:43MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Mike Hoffman, David Savard · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
- P2 17:17MTLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Jake Evans, Jeff Petry · Slap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P2 18:05OTTAlex FormentonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–6
- P3 8:19MTLRem PitlickAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:33MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:30OTTScott Sabourin: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:08MTLMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:36MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:36MTLDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:36OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:36OTTAlex Formenton: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:36MTLAlexander Romanov: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:36MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52MTLMichael Pezzetta: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:52OTTAdam Gaudette: Holding2 min
- P3 0:41OTTParker Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:11OTTParker Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:48MTLJordan Harris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Dvorak – Pitlick7:08
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Caufield12:25
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Perreault – Anderson – Evans4:25
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Romanov11:19
xG 1.44–0.38 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Petry – Edmundson12:26
xG 1.10–0.44 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Wideman – Harris7:35
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Sabourin – Kastelic7:00
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly8:58
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:31
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle4:47
xG 0.00–0.77 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub11:16
xG 0.90–0.63 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Holden – Del Zotto11:32
xG 0.23–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 3–1
- Hamonic – Chabot12:12
xG 0.61–1.83 (25%)attempts 7–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).