Sun, Apr 24, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 013 | 111 | 138 |
| PHI | 115 | 111 | 217 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:49PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Owen Tippett, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 6:49PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Morgan Frost · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 9:38PHINoah CatesPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 16:27PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 17:26PHITravis KonecnyENAssists: Kevin Hayes, Linus Hogberg · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:46PHIRonnie Attard: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:43PITMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:56PHIIvan Provorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:12PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46PITJohn Marino: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Heinen – Rodrigues5:37
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Malkin – Rust – Heinen3:37
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Blueger – McGinn8:06
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – Rodrigues3:22
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino8:14
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel7:17
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson3:18
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Cates7:16
xG 1.36–0.16 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Farabee – Brink8:40
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny11:59
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lindblom – MacEwen6:21
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Attard16:58
xG 1.15–0.42 (73%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Yandle – Zamula9:20
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Hogberg14:41
xG 0.65–0.78 (45%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).