Tue, Apr 26, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 315 | 17 | 436 |
| NYR | 011 | 112 | 211 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:05CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Brady Skjei, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:48CARJordan MartinookAssists: Derek Stepan, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 16:56NYRChris KreiderAssists: Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 18:19CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 0:32CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 13:12NYRJacob TroubaAssists: K'Andre Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 18:58NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Chris Kreider, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:48NYRFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:42NYRRyan Reaves: Holding2 min
- P1 18:18CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:38CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:27CARMartin Necas: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01NYRBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01CARIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:55NYRAdam Fox: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis8:53
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Stepan – Martinook – Necas7:26
xG 0.48–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:25
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Domi9:12
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce14:26
xG 1.11–0.37 (75%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Cole – Smith8:32
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Slavin – DeAngelo13:24
xG 0.65–0.75 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Chytil – Lafrenière2:35
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney3:44
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano7:56
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Chytil – Lafrenière2:27
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren10:59
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller14:53
xG 0.58–0.86 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Schneider13:39
xG 0.16–0.90 (15%)attempts 3–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).