Tue, Apr 26, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 5, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 112 | 213 | 14 | 538 |
| NSH | 06 | 27 | 29 | 01 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02CGYDillon DubePPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:41NSHRoman JosiAssists: Philip Tomasino, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:08NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:14CGYDillon DubeAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 0:30NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 2:03CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Brett Ritchie, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 9:35NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:59CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 2:01CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (22)
- P1 2:09NSHPhilip Tomasino: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 5:10CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 7:53NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:18CGYCalle Jarnkrok: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:53NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:53CGYErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:53CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:53NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:53NSHMatt Duchene: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:38NSHMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:38CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:33CGYBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:42NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:07NSHLuke Kunin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00CGYBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00NSHTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:51CGYElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:43NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:28CGYOliver Kylington: Interference2 min
- P3 17:12CGYMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk9:38
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie6:38
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Dube7:33
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane5:29
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson12:55
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov9:15
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington10:46
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Kunin – Tomasino6:05
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg7:12
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot5:21
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cousins – McCarron – Olivier4:47
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning6:27
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Carrier12:22
xG 0.25–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro11:26
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).