Fri, Apr 29, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 011 | 513 | 634 |
| NYI | 110 | 212 | 116 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Anders Lee · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:57TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Erik Cernak, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:35NYIKieffer BellowsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:48NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 1:21TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 10:10TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Patrick Maroon, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 11:13TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 17:50TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 19:16NYIZdeno CharaAssists: Mathew Barzal, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 19:35TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.48 xG6–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 17:40TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:38NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kucherov – Cirelli2:12
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov11:55
xG 1.21–1.15 (51%)attempts 12–17goals 3–0
- Perry – Paul – Colton6:15
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:35
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Bogosian4:58
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev3:21
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Rutta2:03
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Palmieri – Barzal13:21
xG 1.17–0.91 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Wahlstrom9:47
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Beauvillier13:48
xG 1.01–1.15 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Bellows12:13
xG 0.96–1.14 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson15:16
xG 2.15–0.94 (70%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Greene – Pulock2:35
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Dobson3:36
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).