Fri, Apr 29, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 113 | 312 | 436 |
| PHI | 111 | 06 | 117 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:31PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Owen Tippett, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 11:51OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 1:56OTTTravis HamonicAssists: Alex Formenton, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 12:33PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Morgan Frost · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 16:38OTTBrady TkachukPPGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 18:15OTTAustin WatsonENAssists: Thomas Chabot, Dylan Gambrell · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:55PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P1 18:03OTTMark Kastelic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12PHIZack MacEwen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:30PHIEgor Zamula: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:44OTTAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:13PHILinus Hogberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Gaudette – Kastelic3:39
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle5:32
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:56
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Formenton – Lodin – Stützle5:08
xG 0.26–0.32 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zaitsev10:51
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Brannstrom2:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub13:52
xG 0.49–0.64 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hayes – Konecny12:02
xG 1.06–0.25 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee11:08
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lindblom – MacEwen6:56
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Laughton – Cates – Brink11:23
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Zamula10:18
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Hogberg14:56
xG 0.84–0.56 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Provorov – Attard17:07
xG 0.97–0.93 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).