Sun, Feb 20, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 113 | 25 | 430 |
| PIT | 07 | 213 | 114 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:18CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jordan Martinook, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:09CARJordan StaalUnassisted · Deflected, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 14:43PITBryan RustAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 17:59PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 0:09CARJesper FastAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 14:18CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 18:48PITEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:36PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:40CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:35CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:59CARSteven Lorentz: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:38PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:35CARBrady Skjei: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast13:31
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov14:15
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Martinook – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis6:18
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Lorentz – Necas7:14
xG 0.12–0.74 (14%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce2:02
xG 0.70–0.09 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:54
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Slavin – Bear4:42
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:31
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Boyle – Simon – Aston-Reese7:04
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- McGinn – Kapanen – Rodrigues9:00
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Carter – Malkin – Heinen9:42
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pettersson – Marino11:16
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel15:00
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin17:49
xG 1.05–1.18 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).