Thu, Oct 13, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Washington Capitals 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 09 | 06 | 226 |
| TOR | 121 | 19 | 19 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 9:57WSHNic DowdAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 13:52WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: T.J. Oshie, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 3:53TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:55TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:28TORCalle Jarnkrok: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 5:19WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:23WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:46WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58TORJustin Holl: Holding2 min
- P3 7:26TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 16:15TORNicolas Aube-Kubel: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:19TORMitch Marner: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Sheary – Hathaway8:03
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Brown7:22
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Mantha – Strome – Protas8:18
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Johansson9:07
xG 0.18–0.66 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk10:50
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:30
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen12:00
xG 0.47–1.08 (30%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Malgin9:28
xG 0.75–0.33 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Engvall6:09
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews10:45
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Aube-Kubel – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:33
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly12:43
xG 0.90–0.34 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Holl13:17
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Sandin11:44
xG 0.44–0.99 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).