Fri, Oct 14, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 314 | 113 | 112 | 539 |
| CBJ | 29 | 012 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Justin Danforth, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:08TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 15:21TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 15:55CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Kent Johnson, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 18:55TBLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 7:45TBLCal FooteAssists: Ross Colton, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 7:57TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Deflected, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:02CBJCole Sillinger: Interference2 min
- P1 12:56CBJJustin Danforth: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:16TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
- P2 18:40TBLNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:19TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Paul11:06
xG 0.84–0.09 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel12:42
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton10:06
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke7:35
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Myers9:56
xG 0.89–0.19 (82%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Hedman – Foote11:20
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Cernak – Sergachev12:18
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Chinakhov – Johnson – Sillinger2:27
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Roslovic – Chinakhov6:57
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Danforth13:08
xG 0.64–0.83 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson7:27
xG 0.07–0.32 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Werenski – Peeke3:40
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Boqvist2:52
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Werenski – Boqvist10:05
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).