Sat, Oct 15, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 216 | 214 | 07 | 437 |
| BUF | 213 | 19 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:35BUFAlex TuchAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Eric Comrie · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:03FLAColin WhiteAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:09FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 18:51BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: JJ Peterka, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 2:31FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 17:45FLABrandon MontourPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–2
- P2 19:01BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:40BUFJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:52FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:47BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:33BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:24BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:24BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:24FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04FLAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min
- P2 17:11BUFJacob Bryson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:16BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:40FLABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P3 2:54FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Asplund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Balcers – Tkachuk11:06
xG 1.16–0.55 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
- White – Luostarinen – Lundell8:35
xG 0.25–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:07
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Cousins – Lomberg4:05
xG 0.09–0.10 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling2:39
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour12:19
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Gudas – Mahura9:21
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Mittelstadt – Quinn4:39
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Krebs – Cozens – Peterka5:52
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Asplund7:53
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin6:47
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin6:50
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Power8:22
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).