Tue, Oct 18, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 5, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 412 | 011 | 534 |
| OTT | 39 | 316 | 16 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Josh Norris · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:09OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 13:14OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P1 17:00BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 0:28BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 1:30BOSA.J. GreerAssists: Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 11:57OTTShane PintoAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Tyler Motte · Slap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 13:58OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–5
- P2 16:29OTTMark KastelicGWGAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–6
- P2 17:55BOSNick FolignoAssists: Jakub Lauko · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–6
- P2 19:45BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–6
- P3 9:58OTTArtem ZubAssists: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:44BOSTrent Frederic: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:14OTTDrake Batherson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:18OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43OTTParker Kelly: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:43BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:39OTTJosh Norris: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:03BOSDavid Pastrnak: Embellishment2 min
- P3 8:03OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:16OTTErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:07BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Zacha – DeBrusk2:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha2:03
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Lauko7:48
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – DeBrusk7:02
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Zboril13:04
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Reilly – Lindholm13:55
xG 0.87–1.16 (43%)attempts 17–22goals 2–2
- Stralman – Lindholm3:24
xG 0.03–0.38 (6%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle11:52
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 3–1
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly3:18
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto8:22
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Norris11:39
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson11:08
xG 0.85–0.42 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 3–1
- Chabot – Zub19:34
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 15–18goals 3–1
- Holden – Brannstrom12:01
xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).