Fri, Oct 21, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 013 | 19 | 12 | 332 |
| FLA | 118 | 112 | 07 | 01 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 15:48FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:37FLARudolfs BalcersAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 9:29TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 2:08TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:51TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:35TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:46FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04FLAPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:06TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
- P2 3:32FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:24TBLBrandon Hagel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:24FLABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:00TBLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:47TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 6:54FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min
- P3 9:35FLARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:39FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 0:39TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:39FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel8:30
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke2:01
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Colton – Koepke2:04
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare3:08
xG 0.05–0.10 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers6:03
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak7:45
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:01
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Luostarinen – Lundell7:16
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bennett – Balcers – Tkachuk8:47
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Hornqvist – Cousins – Lomberg4:15
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:14
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling14:29
xG 1.07–0.80 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Gudas – Mahura8:23
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Kiersted7:36
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).