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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 22, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Arizona Coyotes 2, Ottawa Senators 6

Away

Arizona Coyotes

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.

OTT winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ARI062808222
OTT21311039632

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:40OTTShane PintoAssists: Tyler Motte, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:17OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Jake Sanderson, Alex DeBrincat · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:40ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:25OTTBrady TkachukPPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:47ARIClayton KellerAssists: Travis Boyd · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:15OTTMark KastelicUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
  7. P3 7:02OTTTyler MotteAssists: Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
  8. P3 12:08OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 9:06OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
  2. P1 13:23OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 13:23ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:13ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 16:16OTTShane Pinto: Slashing2 min
  6. P1 16:16ARILiam O'Brien: Slashing2 min
  7. P1 19:42OTTTim Stützle: High sticking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 2:07ARIDysin Mayo: Holding2 min · PPG
  9. P2 9:16ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:16OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 15:22OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
  12. P2 17:06ARINick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 9:44OTTTim Stützle: Cross checking2 min
  14. P3 13:45OTTAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 18:50ARIJoshua Brown: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
49% to win51% to win
← ARI attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Boyd
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARIOTT
22Shots on goal32
1.5Expected goals3.1
41Shot attempts54
21Faceoffs won35
5Power plays4
17Penalty minutes19
24Hits28
14Blocked shots11
14Giveaways12
3Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. Kassian – O'Brien – Hayton4:32

    xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1

  2. Bjugstad – Fischer – Maccelli7:44

    xG 0.11–0.28 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  3. Boyd – Crouse – Keller9:43

    xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1

  4. Ritchie – McBain – Guenther6:06

    xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Stecher – Välimäki10:32

    xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

  2. Gostisbehere – Brown11:48

    xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0

  3. Mayo – Moser10:36

    xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–3

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle11:42

    xG 1.00–0.07 (93%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0

  2. Motte – Joseph – Pinto9:59

    xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  3. Watson – Kastelic – Kelly3:53

    xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0

  4. Giroux – DeBrincat – Norris7:26

    xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestChabot – Zub15:14

    xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0

  2. Hamonic – Sanderson9:24

    xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1

  3. Holden – Brannstrom11:47

    xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.1 xGARI 1.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #678 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.26 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.

OTT winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).