Thu, Oct 27, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vancouver Canucks 5, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 27 | 23 | 519 |
| SEA | 214 | 18 | 114 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Luke Schenn, Andrei Kuzmenko · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 18:39SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Justin Schultz, Brandon Tanev · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 19:44SEAJared McCannAssists: Yanni Gourde, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:58VANIlya MikheyevPPAssists: Sheldon Dries, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:17VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 14:32SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 1:16VANElias PetterssonAssists: Luke Schenn · Bat, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 18:35VANConor GarlandENGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.44 xG5–3
- P3 19:30SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:27SEAAdam Larsson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:27VANTanner Pearson: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:27VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:27SEACarson Soucy: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:04VANLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:16SEAWill Borgen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:51SEAAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:54SEAMorgan Geekie: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:54VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:54VANKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:43VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:09VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko11:19
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Horvat – Garland – Hoglander2:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Joshua – Podkolzin – Aman5:20
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Pearson – Dries – Hoglander5:13
xG 0.05–0.23 (16%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Rathbone8:21
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Rathbone2:16
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Schenn – Brisebois11:08
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 5–13goals 1–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – McCann – Tanev8:56
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers10:25
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg12:17
xG 0.47–0.23 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Kuhlman2:04
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:02
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Soucy – Borgen10:18
xG 0.34–0.28 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Dunn – Borgen2:19
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).