Tue, Nov 1, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 13 | 15 | 17 | 315 |
| TBL | 012 | 114 | 38 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44OTTDylan GambrellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 3:17TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:21OTTMathieu JosephSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–1
- P3 11:04TBLAlex KillornAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 11:44OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 12:55TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 17:30TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:57TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:57OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:12OTTTim Stützle: Charging2 min
- P1 19:27OTTParker Kelly: Interference2 min
- P2 1:42OTTJake Sanderson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:25TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:27OTTDylan Gambrell: Match penalty5 min
- P2 10:53OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:44OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:50TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:11OTTTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:47OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47TBLCal Foote: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47OTTNick Holden: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:47TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kastelic won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle6:16
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Motte – Joseph – Kastelic6:17
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Pinto7:30
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson8:55
xG 0.37–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom13:21
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 2–2
- Holden – Zaitsev8:05
xG 0.02–0.36 (4%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Paul8:17
xG 0.50–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel6:27
xG 0.32–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare2:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Colton – Koepke8:13
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak9:30
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Fleury – Foote6:38
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Perbix9:17
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).