Wed, Nov 2, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 18 | 17 | 321 |
| BUF | 011 | 19 | 513 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 5:50PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Ryan Poehling, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 18:51BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Owen Power, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:08PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 3:21BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 6:29BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Owen Power · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:34BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 18:24BUFKyle OkposoENAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
- P3 19:53BUFVictor OlofssonENAssists: Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P2 8:40PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:06BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:24BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:28PITCasey DeSmith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:17PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:52PITJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P3 19:58PITJosh Archibald: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:58BUFDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:58BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Heinen – O'Connor6:54
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:11
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Archibald – McGinn – Poehling8:41
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell13:02
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson13:01
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Joseph – Rutta8:34
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Rutta2:38
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson2:37
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka9:39
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Cozens – Peterka2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Asplund – Krebs9:06
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPilut – Power5:07
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 3–0
- Dahlin – Power2:31
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Pilut5:44
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).