Fri, Nov 11, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 011 | 19 | 129 |
| WSH | 17 | 211 | 26 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Lars Eller · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 7:03WSHSonny MilanoGWGAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 14:25WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Nick Jensen, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 4:53WSHConor ShearyAssists: Anthony Mantha, Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 12:09TBLNick PerbixAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ian Cole · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 17:45WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (21)
- P1 11:25WSHNick Jensen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:16TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:56WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Match penalty5 min
- P2 1:56TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:56TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P2 1:56WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:56WSHGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:09TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:09TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:09WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31TBLCorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P3 2:29TBLNick Perbix: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:37TBLSteven Stamkos: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:41WSHGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:20WSHErik Gustafsson: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:20TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:20WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:20WSHAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:20TBLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:20TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:20TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare2:27
xG 0.01–0.02 (23%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul5:59
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton2:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Colton – Koepke4:16
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Perbix4:25
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak6:32
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak2:22
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Hathaway – Protas8:06
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Aube-Kubel3:56
xG 0.19–0.13 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Milano – Strome2:42
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary4:23
xG 0.29–0.43 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry14:12
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk7:25
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Carlson – Gustafsson9:38
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).