Tue, Nov 15, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 210 | 110 | 02 | 432 |
| TBL | 19 | 214 | 110 | 15 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:45DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:47TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:02DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 9:57DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 14:23TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ian Cole, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 3:55TBLIan ColeAssists: Nick Paul, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 15:18DALRadek FaksaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 3:43TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:37TBLNick Perbix: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:12DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:21TBLNick Paul: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:35DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:35TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:51DALNils Lundkvist: Holding2 min
- P2 16:20DALNils Lundkvist: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:55DALMason Marchment: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 14:57DALJoel Kiviranta: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:57
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:52
xG 0.74–0.50 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:39
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Blümel9:58
xG 0.36–0.69 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist11:00
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen3:56
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:29
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel12:49
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton8:18
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke4:57
xG 0.05–0.02 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul8:52
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Hedman15:40
xG 1.15–0.60 (65%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Fleury – Myers7:33
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Hedman – Perbix3:00
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).