Tue, Nov 15, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 212 | 113 | 533 |
| PIT | 07 | 215 | 015 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jordie Benn, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:04TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 0:11TORMichael BuntingGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 0:54PITRickard RakellAssists: Jason Zucker, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 2:38PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 19:10TORMichael BuntingAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 17:37TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: Michael Bunting, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.72 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:19TORCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:40TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:40PITJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:53TORDenis Malgin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:56PITJeff Carter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews12:16
xG 0.89–0.36 (72%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf9:49
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner9:44
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Holmberg8:04
xG 0.21–0.52 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Rielly15:59
xG 1.08–0.71 (61%)attempts 17–17goals 3–1
- Rielly – Liljegren2:12
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Holl – Sandin2:27
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rakell11:18
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling9:43
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen10:35
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:41
xG 0.39–1.18 (25%)attempts 16–18goals 0–4
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Rutta13:23
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Petry – Dumoulin15:14
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Letang – Pettersson15:06
xG 0.42–1.37 (24%)attempts 15–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).