Wed, Nov 16, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 110 | 09 | 130 |
| OTT | 114 | 114 | 212 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Jake Sanderson, Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:41BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:57OTTBrady TkachukPPGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 14:21OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 19:19OTTTim StützleENAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.80 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:23OTTJacob Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 3:15BUFVictor Olofsson: Holding2 min
- P1 7:05BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:55OTTDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:10OTTMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:38OTTTim Stützle: Interference2 min
- P2 5:27OTTErik Brannstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54OTTTyler Motte: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:27OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:27BUFJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:17BUFJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:47BUFVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:53BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:30OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBjork – Olofsson – Mittelstadt2:39
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs3:44
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Bjork – Asplund2:37
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:24
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPilut – Lyubushkin5:52
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:34
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson8:27
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle7:42
xG 0.52–0.18 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly6:14
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Brassard – Joseph – DeBrincat4:51
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Motte – Batherson – Pinto7:51
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Bernard-Docker9:54
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson9:13
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Holden – Larsson11:11
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).