Mon, Nov 21, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 314 | 18 | 529 |
| TBL | 114 | 07 | 214 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57TBLNick PaulAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:36BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:07BOSNick FolignoPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 5:38BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 15:08BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 3:51BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 4:02TBLRudolfs BalcersAssists: Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 10:38TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.06 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:00TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:41TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:52TBLCorey Perry: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:19BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:56TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:54BOSCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:57
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha9:39
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Greer6:07
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic4:49
xG 0.12–0.52 (18%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Clifton – McAvoy2:34
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton2:15
xG 0.02–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo13:05
xG 0.73–0.74 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bellemare – Balcers7:52
xG 0.74–0.11 (87%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Balcers2:18
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul9:48
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel10:23
xG 0.36–0.75 (33%)attempts 14–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Sergachev3:13
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Myers2:52
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Hedman2:31
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).