Fri, Nov 25, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 111 | 17 | 428 |
| MIN | 112 | 16 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42TORMitch MarnerAssists: Timothy Liljegren, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:01MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 12:43TORZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 2:38MINMatt BoldyAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jordan Greenway · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 10:04TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mark Giordano, John Tavares · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 13:23TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 16:26MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:28MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:13TORJustin Holl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35MINRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:31MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:51TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews10:32
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner10:07
xG 0.44–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Engvall – Aston-Reese – Kampf8:43
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Holmberg7:40
xG 0.13–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin14:11
xG 0.69–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Holl15:05
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Mete – Hollowell9:47
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel12:01
xG 0.65–0.56 (54%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Reaves – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:34
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Petan – Shaw – Dewar5:51
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Boldy9:36
xG 0.02–0.39 (4%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton13:22
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Merrill – Dumba2:36
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dumba16:25
xG 0.69–0.83 (45%)attempts 17–20goals 1–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).